Citizens and Allium: Stablecoins and U.S. Treasury Demand
Citizens and Allium co-authored a white paper mapping roughly $295B in stablecoin supply to an estimated $170B in incremental U.S. Treasury demand, using Allium wallet and transaction labeling.
Citizens co-authored a research white paper with Allium, Stablecoins: Impact on U.S. Treasury Market, published in July 2026. The authors are Eric Merlis, Leslie Wong, and David Scherrer of Citizens Global Markets, and Elton Shehdula of Allium Research.
What the paper finds
The white paper examines how stablecoin growth translates into demand for U.S. Treasuries. Its central argument is that headline stablecoin supply overstates the incremental Treasury impact. What matters is who holds stablecoins, for what purpose, and what instruments they replace.
Using a use-case framework, the paper maps roughly $295 billion in stablecoin supply to an estimated $170 billion in incremental Treasury demand. Supply is classified by usage across exchanges, Tron payments, consumer wallets, DeFi lending, DEXs, perp DEXs, bridges, and an uncategorized bucket, with a Treasury impact factor assigned per reserve type. Payments-driven and self-custodial usage, especially by non-U.S. users on networks like Tron, represents the most durable incremental demand, while U.S. exchange balances are largely substitutive.
Allium's role
Allium wallet and transaction labeling is the classification backbone of the report's central estimate. The methodology classifies stablecoin supply by usage using Allium labeled data, and the consumer wallet segment on Ethereum ($54.5 billion) is defined from Allium's labeled dataset. Elton Shehdula of Allium Research is a named contributor alongside the Citizens Global Markets team.
Step one of the two-step methodology classifies stablecoin supply by usage using Allium wallet and transaction labeling, from which the incremental Treasury demand estimate is derived. The paper concludes that onchain wallet labeling and transaction tracking can help monitor incremental Treasury demand as it evolves.
Citation: Eric Merlis, Leslie Wong, David Scherrer (Global Markets, Citizens); Elton Shehdula (Research, Allium) (2026). Stablecoins: Impact on U.S. Treasury Market. Citizens.
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