Polymarket and Kalshi now predict future GPU rental prices
Both venues settle against the Ornn index, so the prices are testable against real rental rates.
GPU rental prices now trade months ahead across Kalshi and Polymarket, with both markets settling against Ornn, the index that tracks live GPU rental prices. This report examines what traders expect across Nvidia's main AI chips, how the two venues work, and whether their prices provide useful signals for future compute costs.
Key takeaways
- GPU rental rates are volatile: annualized volatility runs from 43% on the A100 to 137% on the H200.
- A B200 rents for about $6.58 an hour on Ornn.
- Kalshi prices all five chips within 6% of current rates at year-end; Polymarket expects the B200 about 13% lower.
- Kalshi's GPU markets have traded $4.4M, about 15 times Polymarket's $285K.
- Two days before close, Kalshi's B200 estimate was still a median 10% from the settling rate.
AI companies rent GPU capacity by the hour, and those rental rates have moved sharply enough to change the cost of a large training run. Kalshi and Polymarket now run prediction markets on where those rates are heading. Both settle against the same index, Ornn, which tracks live GPU rental prices.
The report compares what traders expect across the main chips and where the two venues disagree. It then tests whether the early markets are predicting final rental rates or mainly following today's prices, compares trading activity across the venues and examines what would need to change before these markets could support a substantial hedge. Figures come from Allium data and the Ornn index, queried in late July 2026.
Informational only. Not investment advice.
Finance is moving onchain. Allium is the system of record it runs on.
