Prediction markets moved before currencies in three elections

In Romania, Peru and Japan, prediction markets priced a new likely winner before the leu, sol and yen made their largest moves.

Election markets and currency markets price the same political event on different clocks. This report follows Romania, Peru and Japan, where Polymarket and Kalshi moved to a new likely winner before the related currency made its larger election-period move. By Olivia Denk, Research @Allium; Elton Shehdula, Head of Research @Allium

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Election markets can trade through the moments when political risk is being decided. Currency markets keep hours, and the currency move tied to an election can take days to finish.

This report follows three elections where Polymarket and Kalshi priced a new likely winner before the related currency made its larger move.

In Romania, prediction markets shifted toward George Simion, the hard-right and EU-sceptic challenger, during the first-round vote count on May 4, 2025, before the leu weakened. In Peru, Keiko Fujimori became the prediction-market favorite on April 4, 2026, eight days before the vote, while the sol's larger move came after the count confirmed the result. In Japan, Sanae Takaichi became the likely next prime minister over the weekend of October 4, 2025, while yen trading was closed.

Three elections cannot establish a general rule, but in each of them prediction markets priced the political change first and currency markets took days to finish adjusting.

Figures come from Allium data across Polymarket and Kalshi, queried in August 2026, with currency levels from public benchmark data.

Informational only. Not investment advice.