Rams stand alone as Super Bowl favorite on Kalshi

Los Angeles is at 17% against 8% for its closest challengers. Seattle started last season at 2% and won.

Prediction markets favor the Rams to win it all at 17% on Kalshi, with Buffalo and Seattle next at 8%. The middle of the league is an open field, half of it within two games of .500, and no quarterback has more than a 13% chance of winning MVP on Kalshi or Polymarket. A year ago Seattle was at 2% before kickoff and won Super Bowl LX, and only one of eight preseason division favorites won its division. By Olivia Denk, Research @Allium Elton Shehdula, Head of Research @Allium

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Key takeaways

Prediction markets favor the Rams to win it all at 17%. They trade at more than double any other team on Kalshi, with Buffalo and Seattle next at 8%. The season opens Wednesday with a Super Bowl LX rematch, Seattle hosting New England. In August, $35M of notional volume went through Kalshi’s season-long football contracts.
The market draws a line between the elite and the bottom of the league and treats the middle as an open field. An 8.4-win spread separates the Rams (12.4 wins) from Miami (4.0), while half the league sits within two games of a .500 season. No quarterback trades above 13% for MVP on Kalshi or Polymarket, with Josh Allen leading Kalshi at 11% and Lamar Jackson leading Polymarket at 12.5%.
Last September’s board had the eventual champion at 2%, so a 17% favorite is still more likely to lose the title than win it. Seattle won it all from there, and only one of eight preseason division favorites won its division. The playoff market held up, with eight of the 14 teams at 50% or better making it. September prices are better at showing which rosters are legitimate than at picking the winner.

Abstract

Prediction markets put a price on every season-long NFL outcome, and this brief reads those prices at one cutoff, September 8, 2026, the day before kickoff. Each Kalshi contract pays $1 if its outcome happens, so the latest traded price is shown as an implied chance. Kalshi’s six season-long NFL markets generated $35M in notional volume in August.

The Super Bowl board has one favorite. The Rams, back with the reigning MVP Matthew Stafford after a 12-4 season, are at 17%. Buffalo and Seattle are tied at 8%, and the gap from second place to twelfth is three points against nine from first to second. The projected-wins market runs from 12.4 wins for the Rams to 4.0 for Miami, with 16 teams within two games of .500. The MVP market is open on both Kalshi and Polymarket: Josh Allen leads Kalshi at 11%, Lamar Jackson leads Polymarket at 12.5%, and the two venues sit within 2.5 points of each other on all eight quarterbacks.

Last season is the caution. Seattle’s Super Bowl LX contract was 2% before kickoff and 68% the day before it beat New England 29-13 on February 8, and the three preseason favorites, Buffalo, Baltimore and Philadelphia, were at 1% by mid-January. One of eight division favorites won, while eight of 14 teams priced at 50% or better made the playoffs. September prices are better at showing which rosters are legitimate than at picking the winner.

Download the full report for the Super Bowl board, the projected-wins ladder, the cross-venue MVP comparison and the methodology.

Informational only. Not investment advice.