Prediction markets favor Democrats to win the House and Senate, giving a live read on US midterms

Key takeaways

1. Prediction markets track who will control Congress. A month before the Nov 3 midterms, traders give Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House and 64% for the Senate.
2. Democrats' Senate odds rose most after US crude topped $90 on Mar 6, and again after a Sep 6 NBC poll showed Republican support for the Iran war falling. Democrats have led the Senate odds every day since Sep 14.
3. Most Senate-race trading is in the 8 swing races, where traders give neither party a 75% chance. Those 8 draw 80% of Senate-race notional volume, led by Texas at $21.9M.

Abstract

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, and with Republican Vice President JD Vance breaking ties, Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to win the Senate. In 5 of the 22 Republican-held Senate seats up this year (North Carolina, Alaska, Texas, Ohio and Maine), traders give Democrats over a 50% chance to flip the seat.

Traders have favored Democrats for the House all year, and their chance is 92% now. It was 74% on May 8, when Virginia's top court blocked a new House map worth up to 4 Democratic seats, and it has climbed 18 points since.

Most Senate races lean clearly toward one party, leaving control of the Senate to 8 swing races. Most have shifted toward Democrats since July, led by Texas, where the Democrat rose from 41% to 65%. The most likely outcome puts Democrats at 53 Senate seats or more, past a majority.

Download the full report for the data and methodology.

Informational only. Not investment advice.