Prediction markets price the Fed almost exactly like Wall Street

Key takeaways

1. A hold at the June 17 Fed meeting was priced at about 99% on Kalshi, Polymarket and fed funds futures.
2. Polymarket's June no-change contract took $6.1M in five days.
3. By September, the futures imply +7bp of cumulative rate change, Kalshi +2bp and Polymarket +1bp.
4. The prediction markets keep a September cut at about 13% (Polymarket) and 15% (Kalshi); the futures put it near zero.
5. The later contracts barely trade: Polymarket's September market saw about $11K change hands.

The Fed meets Wednesday. Two prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, price the decision alongside the futures the professionals use. Where real money trades they price the Fed almost exactly like Wall Street: June is a locked hold on every venue. The one thing they still disagree on is a rate cut the futures have nearly written off.

What this report shows:

• In early June the futures priced a full rate hike by December, then took most of it back within a week, while Kalshi barely moved
• The one disagreement left is a 13-15% chance of a rate cut by September that the futures have all but ruled out
• Why that gap is so hard to read, the betting markets that price it barely trade, and what Wednesday's Fed decision starts to settle

Informational only. Not investment advice.