Onchain: The New Alternative Alpha

Key takeaways

1. Perp DEXs (Hyperliquid, Lighter, Aster) trade $6.3B a day in crypto and $1.2B a day in stocks, with $10.6B of open interest, over the 30 days to July 10.
2. Onchain SpaceX pre-IPO markets valued SpaceX at $2.05T the night before listing; on IPO day it opened at $1.97T and closed at $2.11T.
3. SpaceX pre-IPO markets on Hyperliquid and Polymarket had traded $11.8B in total by July 10.
4. 55% of HIP-3 equity and commodity perp volume happens off-hours.
5. Weekend trading priced 29% of the oil move at the start of the Iran conflict, on $57M of weekend volume.

Two new sources of market intelligence have grown up onchain: perpetual futures on venues like Hyperliquid, Lighter, and Aster, and prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. Together they trade billions of dollars a day in real money, and the signal concentrates around the events that actually move markets, from IPOs and earnings to Fed decisions and geopolitical shocks.

This deck collects ten case studies on reading that signal with Allium onchain data:

• Pre-IPO and international access: onchain pre-IPO markets valued SpaceX at $2.05T the night before its June 12 debut, and perps opened Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan names ahead of their listings.
• Weekend markets: 55% of equity and commodity perp volume trades outside US market hours, and weekend trading priced 29% of the oil move at the start of the Iran conflict.
• Political markets: Fed rate odds, Fed-chair nomination markets, and election upsets that repriced FX before the headline.
• Geopolitics: peace-deal odds that led Brent crude lower.
• Alternative KPIs: earnings-beat odds, delivery estimates, and AI-bubble and largest-company markets as live inputs.
• Smart money, trader profiles, and market flows: position-level tracking, trader cohorts, liquidation maps, funding, and dry powder across the book.

Read the full deck above.

Informational only, not investment advice.