Onchain: The New Alternative Alpha

Ten case studies on reading perps and prediction markets, all built on Allium data.

Perpetual futures and prediction markets now trade real money around the events that move markets, from the SpaceX IPO to the US-Iran oil shock to Fed decisions. This deck collects ten case studies on where that signal shows up first onchain and how investors can read it, all built on Allium data. By Elton Shehdula, Head of Research, with Olivia Denk and Maksym Sherman.

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Two new sources of market intelligence have grown up onchain: perpetual futures on venues like Hyperliquid, Lighter, and Aster, and prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. Together they trade billions of dollars a day in real money, and the signal concentrates around the events that actually move markets, from IPOs and earnings to Fed decisions and geopolitical shocks.

This deck collects ten case studies on reading that signal with Allium onchain data:

Pre-IPO and international access: onchain pre-IPO markets priced SpaceX inside its listing range weeks before the June 12 debut, and perps opened Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan names ahead of their listings.
Weekend markets: 55% of equity and commodity perp volume trades outside US market hours, and weekend trading priced 29% of the oil move at the start of the Iran conflict.
Political markets: Fed rate odds, Fed-chair nomination markets, and election upsets that repriced FX before the headline.
Geopolitics: peace-deal odds that led Brent crude lower.
Alternative KPIs: earnings-beat odds, delivery estimates, and AI-bubble and largest-company markets as live inputs.
Smart money, trader profiles, and market flows: position-level tracking, trader cohorts, liquidation maps, funding, and dry powder across the book.

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Informational only, not investment advice.