Polymarket's World Cup markets have taken $98M

Key takeaways

1. Across 1,532 World Cup markets, 131,310 wallets have traded $98M, with $27M of open interest into kickoff.
2. About 1 in 5 traders can be placed on a continent, and roughly 1,345 down to a country.
3. Most countries hold their own team three to seven times more than equally likely foreign teams; the United States is the exception.
4. Continent-level home tilt is only +6% to +12%.

Polymarket's 2026 FIFA World Cup markets have pulled in $98M of trades across 1,532 markets, with $27M of open interest still riding into the June 11 kickoff and 83% of it on the single question of who wins. The crowd reads two ways from onchain behavior rather than an IP: about 1 in 5 of the 131,310 run-up traders can be placed on a continent, and roughly 1,345 down to a single country, a behavior-based read that VPNs do not defeat. This report maps the full market as of June 2026, covering all 49 teams, the 23 countries we can locate, and the three venues that price it: Polymarket International, Polymarket US, and Kalshi.

France and Spain alone carry a third of the money still at stake, yet the money and the crowd sit apart: home bias is mild across whole continents (+6% to +12%, Europe-led) but several times larger by nation, where most countries hold their own team three to seven times more than equally-likely foreign ones, the United States being the lone exception.

Counted by heads, Asia tops nearly every team's list, but counted by dollars, Europe and the Middle East fund 50% to 73% of every favourite's book. Japan's is the most home-tilted of any team at roughly 15 times its market weight.

Informational only. Not investment advice.